Iran Gulf Confrontation Message to Bush on Eve of Mideast Trip
Fox News, January 8 , 2008
In a blatant display of
belligerence and outright provocation, and on the eve of
President George W. Bush's trip to the region, the Tehran
regime had five speed boats of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corp (IRGC) harass three U.S. Navy ships in the
Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
The Strait of Hormuz is the major waterway connecting the
Gulf of Oman to the Persian Gulf and is vital to the free
shipping there. The Pentagon described Tehran's actions as
"careless, reckless and potentially hostile." Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice described the move as "provocative
and dangerous."
Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini,
who earlier in the day had refused to comment on this
episode to inquiring reporters, tried to play down the
encounter as "regular and natural issue." "That's something
normal taking place every now and then,” Hosseini said.
Well, he was being honest. As far as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
IRGC-backed rogue regime is concerned, carrying out such
provocative belligerent acts is quite “normal and natural,”
as is the execution of more than a dozen Iranians last week
and amputation of the hands and legs of five other last
Sunday.
Tehran has been playing the Strait of Hormuz card for over
two decades, repeatedly threatening the West with the
closure of the waterway, hoping to exact concessions — or at
least dissuade it from taking firm action — and intimidate
the Persian Gulf countries.
In April 2006, former Supreme Commander of Iran's Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi,
described the Strait of Hormuz as "the economic lifeline" of
the West and said it could be used to "put pressure on
Iran's enemies." He added, "The Strait of Hormuz and the
Persian Gulf are … the cornerstone of [Iran's] defense."
The timing of the incident is also significant, as it
occurred only two days before President Bush's much
anticipated trip to the Middle East and Persian Gulf to
discuss, among other topics, how countries in the region
could deal with Iran's regional hegemonic ambitions and its
fast-advancing nuclear program.
No doubt, the main recipients of the political message of
this episode were meant to be the Persian Gulf capitals.
Tehran's provocation far from being a move by some rogue
elements in the IRGC, as a few commentators suggested, was a
calculated move to cast a shadow over President Bush's trip
and remind his hosts that the clerical regime has the
capacity to create confrontation in the Persian Gulf waters
at will.
In light of the Ahmadinejad's hastily arranged trip to Oman
for the annual conference of the Gulf Cooperation Council
last month and ensuing humiliation for his regime as
reflected in the closing statement of the conference,
Tehran, through the speed boats episode, intended to
negatively impact any agreement reached between Washington
and the host capitals in the coming days.
Ahmadinejad, backed by the ayatollahs' Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei, is thus testing the political waters. He is trying
to display a hollow show of muscle on the eve of President
Bush's trip, even boosting the morale of the IRGC, and its
allies in the region.
Meanwhile in Iraq, despite rumors about the possible ease in
U.S.-Iran tensions, sources with proven past accuracy have
confirmed to me that Tehran has in fact stepped up the
manufacturing and transfer of the deadly roadside bombs —
Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFPs) — across the border;
thus planning to step up violence in Iraq.
Tehran has remained in clear violation of two United Nations
Security Council resolutions and has escalated the
enrichment of uranium despite repeated calls by the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the UNSC resolutions
1737 and 1747 to halt enrichment.
The National Intelligence Estimate, released last month,
clearly confirmed that Iran had concealed its nuclear
weapons program until it was exposed by Iran's main
opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran
(NCRI) in 2002, and that until 2003, the program was
operating secretly. The NCRI sources unveiled in December
2007 that Tehran had reconstituted the weaponization program
in 2004 at different secret sites and was rapidly mastering
the technology to enrich uranium while assembling more
centrifuge machines in its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant.
In his Middle East trip, President Bush should use the
opportunity to rally support for a firm and unified approach
aimed at checking Tehran's regional ambitions and its
nuclear program. Any indecisiveness on the part of
Washington would be interpreted by Tehran as a sign of
weakness and would further embolden the ayatollahs. Lack of
leadership from Washington, could push the Middle East
capitals, which similar to Washington do not seek a military
solution, to self-destruct by opting to accommodate Tehran's
expansionist belligerence. President Bush should focus his
hosts' attention to what is happening on the other side of
the Persian Gulf inside Iran where a vibrant resistance
movement for democratic change has the key for a free and
non-belligerent Iran and a tranquil and stable Persian Gulf
and region.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs
Analyst and the author of "The
Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear
Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
