Ayatollahs’ Increasingly Belligerent (and Fragile) Regime
Fox News, April 15, 2008
Alireza Jafarzadeh (FNC Foreign Affairs Analyst)
Transcript
Tehran has become the stereotype
of the aggressive, confrontational rogue regime. What may
not be immediately apparent, however, is that the
ayatollahs’ outward belligerence only increases relative to
the inward weakening of their regime. Understanding this
apparent contradiction is key to untangling a plethora of
Iran-related national security challenges confounding
policymakers on the both sides of the Atlantic.
Last week, as all of Washington was talking about new
reports confirming Tehran as the number one threat to a
democratic Iraq and to U.S. national security, Iran’s
president again exposed his fangs. With much fanfare,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the “nuclear good news” about
plans to install another 6,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges
and test more advanced ones in the near future.
Two days later, Ahmadinejad told his audience in the
northeastern city of Mashhad, "We have two missions: to
build an Islamic Iran and to endeavor to change the world
leadership. We have to do both as best we can.” The
“resolutions adopted against Iran,” he said, are “scraps of
paper.”
Ahmadinejad’s exaggerated defiance could not hide the waning
strength of his regime, exacerbated by the widespread
boycott of the mid-March election and the unprecedented
round of purges which preceded it. In the most telling part
of his Mashhad address, he talked about the need to press on
with the elimination not just of rivals, but even of those
among his allies and cabinet members who have displayed less
than absolute loyalty. Forecasting more purges on the
horizon, he said that “We must prepare ourselves for a major
purge and an overhaul of principles in route to the
reconstruction” of Iran.
The next day, his government announced that Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi,
the interior minister in charge of elections, had been
sacked along with the finance and economy minister. Make no
mistake; Pour-Mohammadi was not dismissed because he
belonged to the rival faction. “Moderation” and “reform” are
alien concepts to this guy. Since the inception of the
ayatollahs’ rule, he has been one of the most ardent
advocates of the hard line, at home and abroad. A former
deputy minister of intelligence and security as well as
former revolutionary prosecutor for the military, Pour-Mohammadi
was directly involved in the killing of hundreds of
dissidents, including the 1988 massacre of political
prisoners.
Ahmadinejad’s ruling faction nevertheless blames Pour-Mohammadi
for the popular boycott of the elections. Even the inflated
official numbers show a mere 20 to 25 percent participation
in Tehran and other major cities, while reports compiled by
the network of the People’s Mujahedin (PMOI/MEK), Iran’s
main democratic opposition, indicate single digit
participation.
Actually, Pour-Mohammadi and his ministry had done all they
could to lessen the blow of the impending boycott. In the
days before the polling, he announced a “35 million
turnout.” On Election Day, he backed off and told reporters
that only 25 million had participated. And when the vote
counts came in, he again lowered the number to 22.8 million.
But Pour-Mohammadi’s desperate attempts were an implicit
acknowledgment of the regime’s defeat, which greatly angered
Ahmadinejad and his cohorts. Pour-Mohammadi’s head was first
to roll.
If Ahmadinejad’s Mashhad remarks are any indication, the
purges are just getting started. Already Tehran is abuzz
with rumors of imminent dismissals of many provincial
governors and their deputies. The summoning of the
Intelligence Minister, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ezhei, and
Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, before the
parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission
this week has only accelerated the rumor mill.
The specter of political instability, hardly masked by
Ahmadinejad’s daily dose of diatribes and defiant tirades,
has caused deep anxiety within the regime’s inner circles.
The dismissal of almost a dozen ministers in addition to
scores of other senior officials during Ahmadinejad’s
presidency worries many Tehran insiders, who fear it will be
interpreted abroad as a sign of the regime’s fragility.
To counteract this persistent decline, Ahmadinejad is
driving ahead full throttle in pursuit of nuclear weapons
and the establishment of a sister theocratic rule in Iraq.
With the backing of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, his regime has
adopted a do-or-die agenda, which makes future sackings and
purges inevitable.
The ruling clique fully appreciates the implications of
rising anti-regime sentiment at home and growing isolation
abroad. They know too that the trend of purge and
elimination of the regime’s political body could, sooner or
later, bring down the whole regime. That is why they are
racing against time to get the A-bomb and dominate Iraq,
both crucial to their bid for a second lease on life for
their regime.
And that is why western capitals, particularly Washington,
must take stock of the realities of dealing with an
increasingly fragile — and at the same time increasingly
belligerent — regime. In conjunction with its allies, the
United States must confront the ayatollahs on the nuclear
issue; compliance is non-negotiable. In Iraq, the United
States must stop Tehran’s inroads by relying on indigenous
anti-fundamentalist and non-sectarian political
organizations. In both cases, a large bipartisan group of
Members of Congress argue, the best strategy is to throw the
political weight of the United States behind the democratic
Iranian opposition who was designated as terrorist by the
State Department as a "goodwill gesture" to Tehran in 1997.
Members of Congress believe that the main Iranian opposition
is partnered with moderate, secular Iraqis trying to
safeguard their country from Iranian interference, and they
are at the heart of the anti-fundamentalist movement in
Iran.
Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are racing against time, and so
should the West. This is one race the West cannot afford to
lose.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs
Analyst and the author of "The
Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear
Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
