Iran: Buying time with empty rhetoric
Fox News, July 9, 2008
Transcript
The absence of any substance in
Tehran’s official response last week to the package of
incentives offered by the world’s six major powers was all
but lost in the hype and speculation about a possible
breakthrough in the nuclear standoff. Again, we saw the
ayatollahs’ now familiar ploy of trying to buy time by
poking holes in the determination of the international
community with promises of negotiations (maybe). But this
time around, western capitals also witnessed signs of the
mounting political discord within the inner circles of the
theocratic regime. If they look closely, they may see very
important clues about what positive measures the West might
take to exploit these weaknesses.
First, there was a flurry of headlines about a “tonal shift”
and “conciliatory remarks” from Tehran. The British
ambassador to the United Nations even asserted that he had
detected a “new language.” Then, late Friday afternoon,
Iran’s official response to the group of 5+1 incentive
package was delivered in Brussels, and with it the faint —
albeit misplaced — hope for a breakthrough faded; Tehran had
failed to address the central issue of suspending its
uranium enrichment.
This core demand of the international community, embodied in
four U.N. Security Council resolutions, was all but absent
from Tehran’s response. Instead, the ayatollahs elaborated
at great length about their desire for negotiations on
“common points” between the incentive package and Tehran’s
counteroffer. Kayhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of the
establishment circle affiliated with Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei, stressed in its editorial that "Since the
suspension of uranium was not a common point of the two
packages, naturally it could not be regarded as one of the
points of negotiation."
The reactions by Western diplomats were telling. Although
the European Union’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana is
known for putting the best possible spin on Tehran’s ploys,
he told Agence France Presse on Monday that he was not too
optimistic about prospects for a breakthrough. "There is no
give on the substance whatsoever," said another Western
diplomat familiar with Iran’s response.
The Iranian regime officials were even less diplomatic.
Gholam Hossein Elham, the regime’s spokesman, told reporters
that Tehran’s nuclear policy had not changed, confirming
that “Iran would not comply with Security Council
resolutions requiring it to stop enriching uranium,”
according to the New York Times. Indeed, many top officials,
from Khamene'i to his president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the
new speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, have all
emphatically declared that suspending enrichment is the
regime’s “red line.” One wonders why western capitals cannot
take no for an answer and insist on adding more incentives
to the already incentive-rich package.
The source of the fanciful optimism about Tehran’s “new
language” and “tonal shift” was apparently remarks by Ali
Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to the mullahs’
supreme leader Ali Khamenei. He told the hard-line daily
Jomhouri Eslami that the group of 5+1 package of incentives
could be acceptable "in principle" and that it was
"expedient" for Iran to resume negotiations so as not to
appear "isolated". His statements gave rise to expectations
that Tehran might agree to suspension. So to clarify any
misunderstanding, Velayati was sent out to “correct” his
comments a few days later. Khamene'i had to make sure nobody
would entertain the idea that his regime was retreating,
even an inch.
In the meantime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp
(IRGC) warned that Israel and U.S. naval forces in the
Persian Gulf would be among Tehran's first targets if it
comes under attack, as the air and naval forces of the IRGC
began a military exercise.
The Web site of the elite force posted a statement on May 7,
quoting cleric Ali Shirazi, Supreme Leader's representative
in the IRGC's naval forces, as saying that Tehran would
retaliate against any military strike by targeting Tel Aviv
and U.S. warships in the Gulf.
These are added signs that Tehran has chosen the
confrontational path as opposed to reconciliation.
Although apparently contradictory, all these remarks on the
nuclear issue come from different wings of the same ruling
faction, whose backbone is the IRGC and is led by Ali
Khamene'i. Faced with mounting political dissent and
protests at home and growing isolation abroad, this
“security-military” faction, as it is known inside Iran, is
scrambling for a way out.
Once unified around a coherent policy (the nuclear drive,
meddling in Iraq and other regional mischief) and its
implementation, now groupings within this camp, while
sharing the same strategic goals, are clashing about the
best way to achieve them. This discord at the heart of the
clerical regime is reducing its political and diplomatic
maneuverability, while increasing its tendencies for
belligerence inside Iran, Iraq and the region. The array of
sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the United States,
and the European Union - while still punitively mild - are
exacting a toll, and the cracks are spreading within the
regime.
According to the British daily Guardian, in addition to
“Iran's domestic problems including high unemployment,
inflation, and corruption,” the regime is also being
adversely impacted by the domino effect of “moves in Britain
and elsewhere to legitimize” the People’s Mojahedin
(PMOI/MEK), Iran’s main opposition group which was recently
removed from the UK’s blacklist.
Negotiation for the sake of negotiation is reckless,
particularly in the case of the terrorist Tehran regime,
which hopes to use the prolonged talks to run out the clock.
This is no time for complacency, or for wishful thinking
that some “tonal shift” from Tehran might amount to a real
policy shift. Now is the time to increase the pressure. As
Lord Waddington, former UK Home Secretary, told a gathering
of more than 70,000 Iranians in Paris on June 28, 2008, the
next task in dealing with Iran is to get the MEK "also
delisted in Europe." And when that is done, "let’s hope
we’ll influence those in America to delist the MEK [PMOI] in
the United States of America." Waddington's plan would be a
“new language,” and one that Tehran would understand.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs
Analyst and the author of "The
Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear
Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
