No More Rope-a-Dope With Iran
Fox News, March 4, 2009
Alireza Jafarzadeh (Foreign Affairs Analyst)
Iran’s nuclear chief, Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh
said on Wednesday February 25 that the country has increased
the number of centrifuges at Natanz uranium enrichment
facility to 6,000, the latest show of defiance to U.N.
demands it halt the enrichment program. He added, “It is
time that western countries and especially the new American
administration face the facts and acknowledge a nuclear
Iran.”
In late February, the quarterly report by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s nuclear program was a
damning dossier of Tehran’s defiance. The international will
to stop Tehran’s uranium enrichment is manifested in five UN
Security Council resolutions.
Few in foreign policy circles are optimistic that President
Obama’s direct engagement diplomacy can resolve the nuclear
challenge posed by Tehran. How can engagement possibly
succeed when the interlocutor is a religious tyranny, has no
respect for the fundamentals of international relations or
human rights, and has been appropriately designated the most
active state sponsor of terrorism?
But the IAEA report underlines Tehran’s continued refusal to
respond to specific questions about the military nature of
its nuclear program, and its refusal to provide access to
the sites, documents and individuals specified by the
agency.
The IAEA findings clearly point to the existence of secret
enrichment facilities in addition to the Natanz nuclear site
disclosed by Iran’s main opposition group, the People’s
Mojahedin of Iran (PMOI), (which I am affiliated with) in
2002.
More ominous, the 5-page report indicates that the
ayatollahs’ regime now has nearly 2,230 pounds of
low-enriched uranium, more than enough to produce the
high-enriched uranium needed to make a bomb. This finding
alone — which comes on the heels of Iran’s satellite launch
in February using long-range missile capabilities — has
critical ramifications for President Obama’s Iran policy
review. Iran’s nuclear clock is ticking — a lot faster than
previously believed — and its leadership, perceiving
Washington’s “positive signals” as a sign of weakness, is
hell-bent on pressing ahead.
Sir John Sawers, Britain’s current ambassador to the United
Nations, revealed something of the strategic importance
Tehran attaches to its nuclear weapons program. “The
Iranians wanted to be able to strike a deal whereby they
stopped killing our forces in Iraq in return for them being
allowed to carry on with their nuclear program,” Ambassador
Sawers recalled in his interview with BBC. Iranian officials
proposed: “We stop killing you in Iraq, stop undermining the
political process there and you allow us to carry on with
our nuclear program without let or hindrance.”
Few in foreign policy circles are optimistic that President
Obama’s direct engagement diplomacy can resolve the nuclear
challenge posed by Tehran. How can engagement possibly
succeed when the interlocutor is a religious tyranny, has no
respect for the fundamentals of international relations or
human rights, and has been appropriately designated the most
active state sponsor of terrorism?
Iran’s leadership is well aware of the power that a nuclear
weapons capability — much less an actual bomb — would bring.
Their nuclear program is not about fulfilling Iranian
national pride — it is about becoming a regional power and
creating an Islamic empire. In August 2003, Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei said, “Any weakness or surrender on our part
[over the nuclear issue] would be the greatest strategic
error.”
The IAEA report, particularly its finding that Tehran has
passed the enrichment threshold, underscores the failure of
efforts to negotiate a resolution with Tehran. Waiting for
the outcome of a sham presidential election in June in hopes
that a “moderate” will emerge is folly. Supreme Leader
Khamenei determines nuclear policy, and while Iran’s various
factions may differ over details of the nuclear weapons
issue, they do not disagree about the substance or
imperative of this goal.
Former “pragmatist” president Hashemi Rafsanjani revived
Iran’s dormant nuclear program during his tenure. Former
“reformist” president Mohammad Khatami oversaw the
unprecedented expansion of the nuclear facilities, among
them Natanz and Arak, as European capitals rolled out the
red carpet for him. And “radical” current president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad has taken Tehran to the jumping off point for
making an actual atomic bomb.
The bottom line: no more nuclear “rope-a-dope.” A
nuclear-armed Iran is “unacceptable” as President Obama
declared many times during the 2008 campaign. The
administration must actively and expeditiously formulate a
viable strategy to stop Tehran from buying time. Washington
must think outside the box and focus instead on the only
option Tehran’s rulers consider as real leverage: Iran’s
democratic resistance. Any strategy by the Obama
administration must have the Iranian opposition factor at
its core –empowering it by lifting its ban against it–to
have a chance for success.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs
Analyst and the author of "The
Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear
Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
