Elections in Iran
Interview with CTV News, June 11 2009
Alireza Jafarzadeh, Foreign Affairs Analyst and Iran Expert
Jacqueline Milczarek: Alireza
Jafarzadeh is best known for revealing the existence of
nuclear facilities in
Alireza Jafarzadeh: Thank you very much.
Jacqueline Milczarek: How do you see these elections unfolding? Will it be as most predict here, a face off between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the so called green movement of Mirhussein Moussavi?
Alireza Jafarzadeh: Well I think certainly the two front runners are Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President for the past four years and Mir Hossein Moussavi who was prime minister during the war time in 1980 to 1988.
I donít think that either way the
elections would go would have much of an impact because of
the credentials and background of these two candidates.
First of all, elections are not free in
So I think either way things would go, we
are not going to see a major change in terms of future
course of the developments regarding
Jacqueline Milczarek: Itís
interesting that you say that because there has been a lot
of report and reporting signaling that
Alireza Jafarzadeh: Well
Jacqueline, let me remind the viewers of 1997, when a
similar political circumstances existed. At that time, they
predicated if Muhammad Khatami, who was also perceived as a
moderate, if he wins, it would bring a major change to the
country and the relationship of
So given that, and given the fact that Khatami and Moussavi belong to the same faction--in fact, Khatami threw his weight behind Moussavi--Thatís why the more objective observers when they look at the developments and look at the realities on the ground, they donít expect a major change coming from someone who has such a radical background.
Jacqueline Milczarek: Interesting.
So I want to get a little more from you because there are
those who say thereís potential of the countryís youth to
change a vote potentially. Others say, no the ruling clerics
No, certainly the youth have a huge effect. Youíre
absolutely correct on that. But I donít think the huge
effect of the youth will come in terms of their support of
Moussavi. I think what we have observed in the
past few days, especially during the presidential
debates--which is a new phenomena--is that the populations
are getting really weary of the entirety of this system,
they realize through these debates that all these four
candidates are corrupt and engage in terrorism and hostage
taking and murder. And theyíre thinking of another option,
what they call a third option. They think out of the box,
outside of these four political candidates. Rather in terms
of bringing a social change, a change from within based on
the desire of the population and calling for the change of
the whole system. They donít want clerics. They donít want a
clerical establishment. Rather, they want a secular,
democratic republic and for that matter, those who cannot
raise their voice inside
Jacqueline Milczarek: Okay just quickly, your predication on an outcome here?
Alireza Jafarzadeh: I think itís not a slam dunk either way. Iíve seen media reports, Iíve seen predictions that predict perhaps Moussavi will have a slam dunk victory. I
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs Analyst and the author of "The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.