Will the U.S. Troop Withdrawal Leave the Door Wide Open for Iran?
October 26, 2011
Foreign Affairs Analyst and Iran Expert
Last week, President Obama announced U.S. plans to
remove all troops from Iraq by the end of the year. To no
one's surprise, neighboring Iran applauded the decision. As
early as 2007, the regime's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
had predicted an Iranian power play, saying "Soon, we will
see a huge power vacuum in the region. Of course, we are
prepared to fill the gap."
On October 23, Ahmadinejad laid out Tehran's strategy to
CNN: "The government of Iraq, the parliament, we have a very
good relationship with all of them... And we have deepened
our ties day by day." Clearly, Iran intends to take on the
U.S.'s former role in Iraq.
And the person deepening those ties "day by day"? None other
than Qods Force Commander, Qassem Soleimani, the man
responsible for all of the Iranian regime's covert
activities in Iraq. He oversees Tehran's relations with its
militant proxies there, as well as Hezbollah and Hamas in
neighboring states. He reports directly to Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei, and his budget (mostly in cash) comes directly
from the Supreme Leader's office.
His is a top position, heading a priority policy. Qods Force
meetings about meddling in Iraq, chaired by Soleimani, are
held weekly in the compound of the Supreme Leader. Directly
supervised by Khamenei, the meetings also involve other
senior officials, including Foreign Minister Ali Akbar
Salehi and Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi.
A number of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
military garrisons in Iran have been allocated to the
training of the Iraqi operatives of the Qods Force. In fact,
since 2008, Tehran has enacted a surge in Qods activities in
Iraq. Recruitment is controlled by IRGC Brigadier General
Abdolreza Shahlaei, who in 2007 led the devastating assault
on the U.S. military compound in Karbala in which five
American soldiers were killed. Shahlaei also oversaw the
foiled terror plot of the Saudi Ambassador to the United
States in Washington earlier this month.
In July, Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff, said that weapons flowing from Iran into Iraq were
becoming more lethal and sophisticated, as Washington and
Baghdad negotiated over whether American troops would remain
in the country beyond the end of the year. Mullen said the
delivery of armor-piercing explosives and airborne homemade
bombs to Shiite extremists had increased significantly in
recent months, all with the full knowledge of top Iranian
government officials.
Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said that weapons supplied
by Iran were behind a rash of attacks against American
forces in Iraq, part of an escalating campaign of violence
ahead of the planned U.S. troop withdrawal. He added, "We're
seeing more of those weapons going in from Iran, and they've
really hurt us."
Secretary Panetta later said that U.S. will not "walk away"
from the challenge of Iran's stepped-up arming of Iraqi
insurgents who are targeting and killing American troops as
they prepare to leave Iraq.
The increasingly violent influence of the Iranian regime is
nothing new. The Iranian regime is responsible for over two
thirds of attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq. So, what is
the United States going to do about it? "No one should
miscalculate America's resolve and commitment to helping
support the Iraqi democracy," Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton said on NBC's Meet the Press. "We have paid too high
a price to give the Iraqis this chance."
She reiterated on Sunday October 23 that no one, in
particular Iraq's neighbor Iran, should doubt the American
commitment to Iraq.
The question is, how? How is the United States going to
counter the Iranian threat in Iraq after it leaves, when it
couldn't accomplish that objective when tens of thousands of
U.S. soldiers were in Iraq?
Nor is it clear how it plans to ensure the protection of the
3,400 unarmed Iranian dissidents residing in Camp Ashraf,
Iraq. Without question, the safety and security of these
men, women and children are the responsibility of the United
States, which gave a written commitment to each and every
one of them that it would protect them until their final
disposition. This responsibility is only underscored by
Tehran's insistence that Camp Ashraf residents, many of whom
are former political prisoners who escaped the country, be
killed and their refuge, Camp Ashraf, be destroyed.
A large group of Members of Congress, from both parties and
both the House and Senate, want the full time presence of
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq in Camp Ashraf.
They want the United States to use its leverage to convince
the Security Council of the United Nations and the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to declare
Ashraf a refugee camp. After they hoist the UNHCR flag
there, they must begin in earnest to interview the
residents, who are declared "asylum seekers," by the UNHCR
and relocate all to Europe and the United States before
Maliki can do Tehran's bidding and commit another massacre.
As for the larger question of how to counter the dreadful
implications of Iran's growing sway in Iraq in general, the
United States should not have allowed, in the first place,
the Iranian regime the opportunity to sway the outcome of
the previous elections. Tehran managed to get Nuri al-Maliki
-- who lost the elections to the coalition led by the
secular former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi -- to reemerge as
the Prime Minister. As though that has not been enough,
Maliki continues to be the acting Defense Minister, Interior
Minister, and the Minister of State for National Security.
Unless Allawi and his coalition are allowed to play the
meaningful role they were promised, Iraq will continue to be
a government of "lie and deception," according to Allawi,
and will further fall under the control of the clerical
rulers of Iran. But one thing is clear -- America must act
now.
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
