It's time to act on Iran's nuclear threat
November 15, 2011
Foreign Affairs Analyst and Iran Expert
By Alireza Jafarzadeh | Special to McClatchy Newspapers
Since the Nov. 8, 2011, release of the International Atomic
Energy Agency's latest report about Iran's nuclear program,
Tehran has waged an all-out campaign to dismiss the IAEA's
findings, while implicitly threatening the world with a
terrorist response.
"Iran will respond with full force to any aggression or even
threats in a way that will demolish the aggressors from
within," Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said.
The regime's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said that the
report's findings were dictated by the United States, vowing
Iran would not abandon its nuclear agenda.
But on Nov. 11, the IAEA showed letters and satellite
imagery to United Nations member states as additional proof
that the report is credible. Catherine Ashton, the European
Union's foreign policy chief, said the UN agency's findings
"strongly indicate the existence of a full-fledged nuclear
weapons development program in Iran."
Overwhelming evidence unveils a pattern stretching over
years, of covert activities with a significant military
component that cannot be explained away for any purpose
other than building a nuclear warhead. Despite the IAEA's
definitive conclusion that "Iran has carried out activities
relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device,"
the Iranian regime continues to claim that its nuclear
program is for peaceful purposes.
In like manner, the world's foremost state sponsor of
terrorism denies all the evidence and claims that it is
itself a victim of terrorism. Tehran is responsible for the
murder of thousands of Americans since the mullahs came to
power in 1979. The regime has supplied its proxies in Iraq
with advanced EFP bombs that pierce through armored
vehicles; it held American diplomats hostage in Iran for 444
days back in the 1980s; and it blew up the Marine barracks
in Lebanon, killing hundreds of Americans, and Khobar Tower
in Saudi Arabia, where 19 American servicemen were killed.
There is widespread speculation as to how fast Iran could
obtain nuclear weapons. There may never be consensus on that
because we don't have a full picture of what else Tehran has
been hiding. But one thing should be clear; the world cannot
afford to wait another two years, because it might be just
too late to act.
The question is, what can and should be done?
For three decades, Washington's Iran policy has oscillated
between engagement and threats of military action. Given the
problematic nature of the latter, engagement has essentially
held sway, giving the Iranian regime a golden opportunity to
rapidly advance its quest for the bomb.
Eight years ago, the European Union began its negotiations
with Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program. Three
years ago, President Obama initiated his attempt to unclench
the fist of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
As the IAEA report confirms, neither engagement nor
sanctions have succeeded in halting Tehran's nuclear drive.
Instead of oscillating between these narrow options,
Washington should focus on the Iranian opposition and its
struggle to bring about a democratic and non-nuclear Iran.
Iran's principal opposition movement, the Mujahedin-e Khalq
(MEK), has been the source of much of the intelligence
revealing the existence of multiple nuclear sites scattered
across Iran. In 2002, the MEK reported the groundbreaking
revelation of the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. It
was also the same group that released valuable intelligence
about the regime's Qods Force, whose notorious activities in
Iraq incite violence and support the extremists.
And the MEK was instrumental in the 2009 uprisings in Iran.
Its slogans of "death to dictator" and "death to [Supreme
Leader Ali] Khamenei" became the predominant slogans, and
most of those later hanged for their dissent were MEK
supporters.
Little can be done to stop Iran from advancing its ambitious
nuclear weapons program, unless we factor in the Iranian
people and their organized opposition committed to replacing
the regime with a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear
republic.
Yet the biggest obstacle blocking the option of real
democratic change, experts believe, remains the U.S. State
Department's inclusion of the MEK on its terrorist list.
This has drawn the ire of senior members of the House
Foreign Affairs Committee, the Select Committee on
Intelligence and some 100 members of Congress who
co-sponsored a bi-partisan resolution that calls for
delisting the MEK immediately in accordance with a federal
court order.
Tehran's apologists argue that if the U.S. takes a tough
approach to counter Iran's nuclear threat, the Iranian
people will rally behind the regime's leaders, including the
IRGC. Make no mistake; nothing can mobilize Iran's
population behind its ruthless rulers.
To the contrary, nothing has been more destructive than
engagement packaged under different names. Iran's people are
not unified behind the mullahs' nuclear program; they are
united in their anger toward the regime's rulers, and their
deep-rooted desire for democracy and human rights.
It is time for the Obama Administration to wake up to the
lessons of the Arab Spring. Dozens of former senior
administration officials tasked with keeping America safe,
believe that the U.S. must abandon its decades-old policy of
engagement with the ruling dictatorship, and recalibrate its
policies to accord with the realities of the region. A
"Persian Spring" is imminent.
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
